Opinion: Forecasting and decision- making
Some years ago I read Robert Rubin’s book, “In An Uncertain World.” Rubin focused on the process of decision-making when the results of that decision are anything but guaranteed. Many times we have to make choices based on very uncertain forecasts; the key is to do the analysis in the proper context, to give it the appropriate “frame.” Last Thursday evening, the Boulder City Council was discussing the planning process for the Civic Center area that runs along Boulder Creek in downtown. The council is faced with some real issues here — many of the city’s buildings are already in the flood prone area, and climate change will almost certainly increase the frequency and severity of flood events. But how much more is not predictable with any level of certainty, at least not yet. So what is the council to do? The council needs to take the perspective of looking back from 25 or 50 years in the future. Just as some are already asking about past decisions, we do not want our successors to...